The Simon–Ehrlich wager turned an academic disagreement into a public test of economic theory when Julian Simon challenged ecologist Paul R. Ehrlich to bet on the future price of five metals. By winning this decade-long contest, Simon provided a concrete illustration of his belief that human ingenuity would consistently overcome resource scarcity and physical limitations.
Early Development and Academic Training
Born in 1932 in Newark, New Jersey, Julian Simon grew up in a family that managed a downtown hardware store before relocating to Millburn. His undergraduate studies at Harvard University, completed in 1953, focused on experimental psychology. Following naval service, he attended the University of Chicago, earning an M.B.A. in 1959 and a Ph.D. in business economics by 1961. During this period, he studied under economists such as Milton Friedman, Friedrich Hayek, and Theodore Schultz.
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Prior to his extensive academic career, Simon operated a direct-mail and advertising agency in New York. His frustration with regulatory constraints and bureaucracy during this time informed his later economic perspective. This experience led to the publication of his highly successful book, How to Start and Operate a Mail Order Business, first released in 1965 and updated through 1993.
Shift in Population Theory
Early in his teaching tenure at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, where he served from 1963 to 1983, Simon initially supported the necessity of family planning programs. However, exposure to the research of Simon Kuznets, Richard Easterlin, and Ester Boserup shifted his viewpoint. By 1970, he publicly argued that population growth represented a triumph for humanity rather than an economic disaster, citing the potential for human innovation to drive future prosperity.
Academic Contributions and Legacy
Simon spent the final stage of his career at the University of Maryland from 1983 until his death in 1998, with additional affiliations including the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. His research spanned diverse topics from marketing and airline overbooking to suicide studies. He died in Chevy Chase and is buried at King David Memorial Gardens.
Fast facts
- Born: 1932, Newark
- Died: 1998, Chevy Chase
- Academic Degrees: B.A., M.B.A., Ph.D.
- Alma Maters: Harvard University, University of Chicago, Booth School of Business
- Key Affiliations: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, University of Maryland, Hebrew University of Jerusalem
- Primary Fields: Economics, business administration
- Notable Work: How to Start and Operate a Mail Order Business
Questions readers ask
What was the Simon–Ehrlich wager?
It was a bet between Julian Simon and Paul R. Ehrlich regarding the price of five metals over a decade, which Simon won when the prices declined.
What was Simon's core economic view?
He believed that human ingenuity and technological progress could create substitutes for finite resources, making continuous population growth an economic benefit.
Achievements
- Affiliated with University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, University of Maryland and Hebrew University of Jerusalem
- Educated at Booth School of Business, Harvard University and University of Chicago
- Worked as economist and university teacher
