The American Institute of Public Opinion emerged in 1935 as a vehicle for systemic social measurement, changing how political climates were assessed. By moving away from massive, unrepresentative straw polls toward smaller, scientifically selected sample groups, its founder introduced a rigorous methodology that redefined how statistics were applied to the study of democratic public opinion throughout the twentieth century.
Early Academic Development
Born in 1901 in Jefferson, Iowa, George Horace Gallup engaged in journalism early by managing a high school newspaper. He attended the University of Iowa, completing his bachelor’s degree in 1923, his master’s in 1925, and earning a Ph.D. in 1928. His academic career included serving as the head of the Department of Journalism at Drake University until 1931, followed by a professorship at Northwestern University.
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His shift toward systematic polling began in 1932 during his mother-in-law’s campaign for Iowa Secretary of State. Upon moving to New York City to join the advertising agency Young and Rubicam as director of research, he refined sampling methods. In 1936, his organization gained national recognition by accurately predicting the victory of Franklin Roosevelt over Alf Landon, while simultaneously identifying the flaws in the large-scale questionnaires favored by the Literary Digest.
Operational Expansion
Throughout the 1940s, he co-founded the Market Research Council and established the Gallup International Association to standardize opinion polling globally. In 1948, he partnered with Claude E. Robinson to form the research firm Gallup & Robinson. Eventually, in 1958, he consolidated his various polling and research initiatives under the unified umbrella of The Gallup Organization, cementing his influence in both political science and commercial advertising research.
Legacy and Conclusion
Despite a notable failure in the 1948 election forecast, where he underestimated Harry S. Truman’s support due to terminating data collection too early, he remained a central figure in statistical science. He served as a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He died in 1984 at his summer home in Tschingel, Switzerland, and is buried in Princeton Cemetery.
Fast facts
- Born: 1901, Jefferson
- Died: 1984, Tschingel
- Education: University of Iowa
- Primary Field: Statistics
- Notable Organization: American Institute of Public Opinion
- Key Partnership: Gallup & Robinson
Questions readers ask
How did he predict the 1936 election?
He used a representative sample of 50,000 respondents, which proved more accurate than larger but unrepresentative surveys.
Why did he miss the 1948 election result?
He ended his polling process three weeks before the election, missing the late-stage shift in voter support for Harry S. Truman.
Achievements
- Held posts at Columbia University, Drake University and Gallup
- Fields: political science and statistics
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