The Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery model, developed by Christina Pagel, fundamentally altered how UK hospitals publish survival rates for children undergoing heart operations. This statistical tool accounts for the complexity of individual cases, providing a more accurate metric than raw survival figures alone for every hospital performing such procedures across the country.
Academic Background and Early Physics Research
Pagel attended St Paul's Girls' School before graduating from The Queen's College, Oxford, in 1996 with a BA in mathematics. Her academic progression included an MSc in Mathematical Physics from King's College London and various master's degrees from Birkbeck College, covering classical civilisation, medieval history, and applied statistics. In 2002, she earned a PhD in space physics from Imperial College London, focusing on turbulence within the interplanetary magnetic field. Her early professional career involved researching electron scattering using data from the ACE spacecraft at Boston University.
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In 2005, Pagel shifted her focus from physics to healthcare, joining the Clinical Operational Research Unit at University College London. Her work involves applying mathematical modelling and data science to improve hospital service delivery. Between 2017 and 2022, she served as the director of this unit. Her research output includes studies on mortality outcomes for cardiac surgery patients and improving intensive care management. She also co-leads the CHIMERA research hub, which utilizes machine learning to analyze data from patients at University College Hospital and Great Ormond Street Hospital.
Policy, Public Engagement, and Covid-19
During the Covid-19 pandemic, Pagel became a prominent voice in public discourse, serving on the Independent SAGE committee to provide evidence-based advice. Her contributions to science communication include the Sense about Science guide on statistics and the 2023 presidency of the Mathematics Section at the British Science Festival. She also maintains the TrumpActionTracker to monitor political developments concerning health and democratic norms.
Fast facts
- Born: 1975, London
- Citizenship: United Kingdom; Germany
- PhD: Space Physics, 2002
- Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences: 2025
- Mathematics Section President, British Science Festival: 2023
- Research Focus: Applied Mathematics in Healthcare
- Current Role: Vice President, UK Operational Research Society
Questions readers ask
What is the PRAiS model?
It is a statistical method for assessing survival rates in children's heart surgery by adjusting for the clinical complexity of individual patients.
What is the purpose of the CHIMERA research hub?
It uses machine learning and data analysis from intensive care patients at specific London hospitals to better understand recovery and physiology.
Achievements
- Held posts at University College London, University College London and Commonwealth Fund
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